CNBC’s Jim Cramer sees a silver lining in the beaten-down retail landscape: bargain stocks to buy ahead of the holiday shopping season. “The retail group is so horrible that I’m beginning to think the Grinch is here already,” Jim said Monday on ‘Squawk on the Street.’ “This might be an opportunity to buy the retailers, saying that, ‘Okay, it was bad, but maybe it’ll get better.’ So, I’m not going to be as negative as the market is,” he added. His optimism stands out against a backdrop of souring consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan’s latest Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 6.2% in November to 50.3. That’s about 30% below the year-ago level and near historic lows. In fact, November’s reading was the second lowest since at least 1978. The U.S. government shutdown, which is the longest ever at 41 days and counting, has been a major drag on household confidence. Jim called the government shutdown “a confidence killer” during Monday’s meeting for Investing Club members. Still, he sees hope ahead of the holidays. “The planes will work ahead of Thanksgiving, and that’s going to help morale. It’s going to help consumer spend, and it makes me more bullish about the consumer, who is just shut down,” he added. Over the weekend, signs of progress emerged as the Senate advanced a measure aimed at ending the shutdown. That would be great news for the economy and could specifically lift retail stocks, such as sportswear maker Nike , which is showing clear signs of progress under CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround plan. That gave us confidence to scale deeper into our position on Oct. 31 despite the stock coming under pressure from temporary concerns about a prolonged government shutdown. The end of the shutdown was one of the key catalysts for stocks, as outlined in Jim’s Sunday column. But consumers remain wary. A Morgan Stanley consumer survey of 2,000 U.S. consumers, published on Monday, found that 49% of respondents expect the economy to worsen over the next six months. The contentious political environment in the U.S. was the second-most listed concern among consumers, behind inflation. Short-term spending plans are also taking a hit: only 31% expect to spend more next month, versus 18% who expect to spend less. That’s down from 17% last month and 21% the year before. The survey also revealed that the biggest cutbacks are in discretionary categories, including apparel, leisure, small appliances, electronics, and dining out. The essentials – groceries and household supplies – remain the sole bright spots in consumer budgets. This shift is taking a toll on major retailers. JPMorgan on Monday lowered its third-quarter forecast for Club name Home Depot , and now expects comparable sales to rise just 0.5%, down from its previous forecast of 3% and below Wall Street’s 1.5% consensus estimate. The firm also trimmed its earnings-per-share forecast to $3.82, compared with the expected $3.85. Home Depot, which reports earnings Nov. 18 before the bell, has long been one of Cramer’s preferred plays on the home improvement and housing comeback — especially as the Federal Reserve cuts rates. But even he admits the stock is “a little risky right now.” The stock has fallen 11% since rallying ahead of the Fed’s September rate cut and is down 6.5% year-to-date, trading at about $365 per share. However, the Club maintains its buy-equivalent 1 rating with a $440 price target. If there’s one corner of retail that’s holding its own, it’s the off-price sector. In a research note, Bernstein analysts called the group a bright spot, noting that “consumers seek out more value for their dollar” during periods of weak consumer sentiment. They described Club as holding TJX Companies — the owner of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods — as “bulletproof” due to its strong merchandising, assortments, pricing power, and ability to attract higher-income consumers. The firm expects TJX’s comparable sales growth of nearly 4%, which is ahead of the company’s guidance of 2 to 3% and slightly above the Street consensus of 3.5%. Bernstein is more cautious on earnings results from competitors, Burlington Stores and Ross Stores, given their exposure to the lower-income consumer who is pulling back on spending. TJX is set to report its third quarter of fiscal 2026 on Nov. 19 before the open. TJX stock is up 20.6% year-to-date, outperforming the S & P 500’s 14.4%. TJX is currently trading at $145 per share, just shy of the Club’s price target of $150. We maintain our 1 rating on the stock. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long HD, TJX, and NKE. See here for a full list of the stocks.) 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