Retail holiday hiring to hit lowest level in at least 15 years, NRF says

Holiday hiring by retailers is expected to total between 265,000 and 365,000 roles this year, the lowest number of seasonal workers in at least 15 years, the National Retail Federation said Thursday.

NRF CEO Matthew Shay said on the retail trade group’s conference call on that those hiring expectations “reflect the softening and slowing labor market.” It’s a significant drop from a year ago, when retailers hired 442,000 seasonal workers, the retail trade group said.

Some companies may have hired seasonal workers early to support sales events in October, but retailers have largely tried to limit their spending as they manage higher costs from tariffs, NRF chief economist Mark Mathews said.

The major industry group’s prediction offers the latest glimpse into the jobs market as the record government shutdown stretches on and leads to fewer government reports on economic data, such as unemployment and inflation. That’s caused companies and economists to rely on data from private companies or organizations instead.

Earlier Thursday, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas said layoff announcements soared in October to 153,074, a 183% jump from September and 175% surge from the same month a year ago. That marked the highest level for any October since 2003, and 2025 has been the worst year for announced layoffs since 2009.

On the other hand, payrolls processing firm ADP reported net job growth in October of 42,000, reversing two consecutive months of losses in the private sector.

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Even with the lower levels of seasonal staffing, the NRF is optimistic holiday spending will be strong. It said it expects holiday spending to hit a record of between $1.1 trillion to $1.2 trillion from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, the first time the total would top $1 trillion.

That would represent 3.7% to 4.2% year-over-year growth from the previous holiday season, a slight decrease from last year’s 4.3% holiday sales growth rate. NRF’s forecast excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.

Even with low consumer sentiment, a prolonged government shutdown, “on-again-off-again tariffs” and price sensitivity because of inflation, Shay said consumers have defied expectations and kept spending.

“In fairness, that’s been somewhat of a surprise based on where we thought we might be way back in April,” he said.

He said the trade group anticipates that dynamic will persist during the key holiday shopping season. Households typically cut back during other parts of the year or on other parts of the budget to make it a festive time, he said.

Even as consumers continue to spend, the retail industry has taken a cautious stance on hiring — a fact reflected in NRF’s predictions for seasonal workers. It is the fourth slowest year for retail hiring on a year-to-date basis since at least 2000, behind only 2009, 2010 and 2012, several of the years following the Great Recession.

Mathews told CNBC in an interview that the slow hiring environment all comes down to one word: uncertainty.

“The one thing you know businesses do when they are in uncertain environments is they put things on hold,” he told CNBC in an interview.

On NRF’s conference call on Thursday, Mathews said the U.S. economy doesn’t need the same level of job creation as it used to because of demographic and policy shifts, including the retirement of Baby Boomers and President Donald Trump’s crackdown on immigration.

Still, he said, the level of hiring and investment by companies will be an important indicator to watch in the coming year.

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Right now, he said, a flood of investment in artificial intelligence has been “a huge boon for the economy.” But he added “that may be covering up a few cracks.”

“We need to keep a close eye on on how businesses are feeling and what remains an uncertain environment,” he said.