Here are the five key takeaways from the Fed meeting and Powell news conference

The Federal Reserve meeting that wrapped up Wednesday both delivered on expectations and offered a few surprises. Here are five key takeaways:

1. The Federal Open Market Committee, as expected, delivered its quarter percentage point rate cut, but not without some backstage intrigue that included two dissenting votes — one in each direction. While Governor Stephen Miran delivered a widely anticipated “no” vote because he preferred a half-point reduction, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid wanted no cut, speaking for what is an apparently growing group of inflation hawks who are worried about the Fed’s easing bias.
2. Using uncharacteristically strong language, Chair Jerome Powell pushed back hard on another cut in December for which markets had been assigning about a 90% probability of happening. “In the committee’s discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December,” Powell said during his news conference. “A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion. Far from it.” He went on to note there were “strongly different views” expressed by the 19 meeting participants and noted that the tone would be reflected in the meeting minutes, released in three weeks.
3. Markets knew the end of QT was coming, but just weren’t set on when. The committee laid that to rest and said quantitative tightening, or allowing assets to roll off the Fed’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet, would end after the November operations. While Powell doused talk of a December cut, ending QT then could have a similar impact. At the same time, the committee indicated it would be reinvesting maturing mortgage notes in short-term bills, which Powell said will tilt the balance sheet to shorter duration with an even stronger lean toward Treasurys.
4. On the question of inflation, Powell gave indications that it is drifting back towards the Fed’s 2% goal but remains elevated — around 2.8% by the Fed’s preferred measure. Tariffs are providing a boost to that number in the half percentage point range, but Powell said the view continues to be that the impact from the levies will be temporary. The inflation forecast for October is significant in that the Commerce Department will not be releasing an official number on the personal consumption expenditures price index due to the government shutdown.
5. Powell gave a nod towards the uncertainty from the shutdown, but said the lack of public data likely doesn’t change the economic picture, one of moderating growth, rising unemployment and “somewhat elevated” inflation. “Although some important federal government data have been delayed due to the shutdown, the public and private sector data that have remained available suggests that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since our meeting in September,” he said.

“He kind of did a WWE slam on those expectations of a December rate cut. [The door is] not completely closed, I guess, but it was expected to be a foregone conclusion. And he came out pretty vociferously and said, ‘Nope, better not think about it that way.'” — Dan North, senior economist at Allianz

“So, regardless of the use of alternative data sources the Fed can draw on, we believe there is an increased chance that December’s meeting may skip a cut, which would push off further accommodative rate moves into the new year, and potentially to a new Chair.” — Rick Rieder, head of fixed income at BlackRock and finalist for Powell’s job when his term as chair expires in May

“He tried to say it is not a foregone conclusion, but a December rate cut still seems likely. No Fed leader wants to be responsible for a slowdown or a recession.” — Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union