Trump rekindles speculation of a meeting with Kim Jong Un—but North Korea now holds the cards

Now, as Trump is set to make his first trip to Asia since his return to office, speculation is rife that he may seek to meet Kim again during his stop in South Korea. If realized, it would mark the two’s first summit since their last meeting at the Korean border village of Panmunjom in June 2019, and fourth overall.

Many experts say prospects for another impromptu meeting aren’t bright this time but predict Trump and Kim could eventually sit down for talks again in coming months. Others dispute that, saying a quick resumption of diplomacy isn’t still likely given how much has changed since 2019 — both the size of North Korea’s nuclear program and its foreign policy leverage.

Talks of fresh diplomacy

Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to restore diplomacy with Kim as he boasted of his relationship with the North Korean leader and called him “a smart guy.” Ending his silence on Trump’s outreach, Kim last month said he held “good personal memories” of Trump and suggested he could return to talks if the U.S. drops “its delusional obsession with denuclearization” of North Korea.

Both Washington and Pyongyang haven’t hinted at any high-profile meeting ahead of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in South Korea. But South Korea’s Unification Minister Chung Dong-young told lawmakers in mid-October that it was possible for Trump and Kim to meet at Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone again when the U.S. president comes to South Korea after visiting Malaysia and Japan.

“We should see prospects for their meeting have increased,” said Ban Kil Joo, assistant professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul. He cited the recent suspension of civilian tours to the southern side of Panmunjom and Kim’s comments about a possible return to talks.

If the meeting doesn’t occur, Ban said Kim will likely determine whether to resume diplomacy with Trump when he holds a major ruling party conference expected in January.

No notable logistical preparations that imply an impending Kim-Trump meeting have been reported, but observers note that the 2019 get-together was arranged only a day after Trump issued an unorthodox meeting invitation by tweet.

Kim’s greater leverage

Since his earlier diplomacy with Trump fell apart due to disputes over U.S.-led sanctions on North Korea, Kim has accelerated the expansion of an arsenal of nuclear-capable missiles designed to strike the U.S. and its allies. He has also strengthened his diplomatic footprint by aligning with Russia over its war in Ukraine and tightening relations with China.

Subsequently, Kim’s sense of urgency for talks with the United States could be much weaker now than it was six years ago, though some experts argue Kim would need to brace for the end of the Russia-Ukraine war.

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“Considering the current situation, it seems difficult to imagine Kim Jong Un coming over for talks,” said Kim Tae-hyung, a professor at Seoul’s Soongsil University.

With an enlarged nuclear arsenal, stronger diplomatic backing from Russia and China and the weakening enforcement of sanctions, Kim has greater leverage and clearly wants the U.S. to acknowledge North Korea as a nuclear power, a status needed to call for the lifting of U.N. sanctions. But that would run counter to the U.S. and its allies’ long-held position that sanctions would stay in place unless North Korea fully abandons its nuclear program.

“If a meeting with Kim Jong Un happens, Trump would brag of it and boast he’s the one who can resolve Korean Peninsula issues as well, so he has something to gain … But would the U.S. have something substantial to give Kim Jong Un in return?” said Chung Jin-young, a former dean of the Graduate School of Pan-Pacific International Studies at South Korea’s Kyung Hee University.

Koh Yu-hwan, a former president of South Korea’s Institute of National Unification, said that any meeting between Trump and Kim around the APEC meeting is unlikely to produce meaningful results. To get Kim back to talks, Koh said Trump would have to bring something enticing him to the table this time around.

North Korea’s evolving threats

Even if they don’t meet this month, there are still chances for Trump and Kim to resume diplomacy later. Kim may see Trump as a rare U.S. leader willing to grant concessions like the nuclear state status, while Trump would think a meeting with Kim would give him a diplomatic achievement in the face of various domestic woes.

There are both hopes and worries about potential dialogue between Trump and Kim.

Some call for the role of diplomacy to ease the danger of North Korea’s enlarged nuclear arsenal. But others caution against Trump settling for rewarding North Korea with an extensive relaxing of sanctions in return for limited steps like freezing its unfinished long-range missile program targeting the U.S. Such deals would leave North Korea with already-built, short-range nuclear missiles targeting South Korea.

Kim Taewoo, another former head of the Institute of National Unification, said “such a small deal” would still benefit South Korea’s security because decades-long efforts to achieve a complete denuclearization of North Korea have made little progress.

“If North Korea possesses an ability to strike the U.S., can the U.S. freely exercise its extended deterrence pledge in the event that North Korea attacks South Korea?” Kim Taewoo said, referring to a U.S. promise to mobilize all military capabilities to protect South Korea. The country has no nuclear weapons of its own and is under the so-called U.S. “nuclear umbrella” protection.

Chung, the former university dean, said there are virtually no chances for North Korea to give up its nuclear program. But he said that giving North Korea sanctions relief in return for partial denuclearization steps would trigger calls in South Korea and Japan for their countries to also be allowed to have nuclear weapons.

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