Family offices fear dollar depreciation, lower returns in wake of tariffs

A version of this article first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide to the high-net-worth investor and consumer. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.

Family offices have been investing with more caution since President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement in early April, according to a recent survey released by RBC Wealth Management and research firm Campden Wealth.

In a poll of 141 investment firms of ultra-wealthy families in North America, the majority (52%) of respondents said cash and other liquid assets would offer the best returns over the next 12 months. More than 30% said artificial intelligence would offer the best returns. (Respondents could pick multiple answers). In last year’s survey, growth equities and defense industries were the most popular choices, each tallying just under a third of respondents.

Family offices also lowered their expectations for 2025 returns, reporting an average expected portfolio return of 5% for the year, down from 11% in 2024. Fifteen percent of respondents said they expected negative returns, while nearly none did the year prior. The most popular investment priority for 2025 was improving liquidity, which was selected by nearly half of family offices. Last year’s top choice, at 34%, was portfolio diversification.

The survey was conducted from April through August. RBC Wealth Management’s Bill Ringham said that tariff-induced market turmoil and geopolitical tensions played a “pivotal role” in the pessimistic poll results.

While U.S. markets have rebounded to record highs since the spring, family offices still have other reasons to be bearish. A whopping 52% of respondents cited depreciation of the U.S. dollar as a likely market risk. The dollar has dropped by nearly 9% since the beginning of the year, and banks including UBS expect depreciation to continue.

The slowdown in exits for private equity and venture capital, a common complaint from family offices per the report, continues to drag on. Nearly a quarter of respondents said private equity funds have not met their expected investment returns for 2025, and 15% said the same of private equity direct investments. Venture capital scored the lowest net sentiment, with 33% reporting unsatisfactory returns.

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That said, family offices are flocking to cash not only to mitigate risk but also to make opportunistic bets in the future, Ringham said.

“They’re taking a much longer vision of their legacy and their family,” said Ringham, who directs private wealth strategies for the bank’s U.S. arm. “By doing this, they’re probably creating the capital to take advantage of opportunities as they see them coming through in the market.”

This cautious optimism can be seen in the respondents’ intended asset allocation changes, he said. Only a net 3% of family offices plan to increase their allocation to cash and liquid assets, compared to 20% for direct private equity investments and 13% for private equity funds.

Investing in private markets is a necessity to create enough wealth to beat inflation and accommodate a growing family, Ringham said.

“When family offices are putting together portfolios, they’re obviously looking at time horizons that can last much longer than individuals that don’t have this type of legacy wealth. I mean, we’re looking at 100 years to 100 years plus,” he said. “If you’re taking the long view, even though you might realize that private equity hasn’t been performing that well over the past couple years, it’s still a place where historical returns might have exceeded returns that you might find elsewhere.”