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Deckers stock sinks on outlook worries over Hoka, Ugg growth
Hoka shoes are seen in a store in Krakow, Poland on February 1, 2023.
Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Shares of footwear maker Deckers Brands plunged more than 12% Friday after the company trimmed its sales guidance for Hoka and Ugg — the two brands driving its growth — over concerns that tariffs are leading to a slide in demand.
Hoka, an up-and-coming running shoe brand, is now expected to grow by a low-teens percentage in fiscal 2026 after growing 24% in the year-ago period, while Boots brand Ugg is expected to grow in the range of a low to mid single-digit percentage, after growing 13% in the year-ago period.
In May, the company said Hoka and Ugg were expected to grow in the mid-teens and mid-single digits, respectively, in fiscal 2026 but it caveated that forecast by saying it was conceived prior to the introduction of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. At the time, it quantified the expected impact to its costs but said it remained to be determined what kind of impact the new duties could have on demand.
When reporting fiscal second-quarter earnings on Thursday, finance chief Steven Fasching said the impacts tariffs and higher prices are having on demand are now more clear.
“Part of the framework that we gave at the beginning of the year really said if tariffs did not have an impact on consumers, how we saw kind of certain growth, and we still believe that, right? But we do know and we are more currently seeing some impacts on the U.S. consumer,” Fasching told analysts on the company’s conference call. “So as U.S. consumers are beginning to see some price increases. It is impacting their purchase behavior within the consumer discretionary space.”
He added the guidance isn’t far off from what the company originally thought but acknowledged there is a “little bit of a reduction” in its forecast.
The slower pace of growth for Deckers’ two top-performing lines, along with the trim to their sales guidance, signals the two brands could be losing momentum after years of outperformance. Together, Hoka and Ugg account for the vast majority of Deckers’ revenue and have been critical in offsetting weaknesses in other categories.
CEO Dave Powers, however, downplayed fears of a long-term slowdown, telling investors that both brands remain strong among core consumers.
“We’re confident in the long-term trajectory of our portfolio,” Powers said. “While tariffs and inflation are creating near-term pressure, Hoka and Ugg continue to lead in brand heat and market share gains across their categories.”
Beyond Hoka and Ugg, Deckers’ full-year revenue guidance came in lower than analysts’ expectations. In fiscal 2026, the company expects revenue of about $5.35 billion, shy of Wall Street’s $5.45 billion forecast, according to LSEG. It expects earnings per share to be between $6.30 and $6.39, roughly in line with the $6.32 per share estimate, according to LSEG.
In the company’s call with analysts, Fasching warned that tariff costs could total about $150 million this fiscal year. Executives said they expect to offset roughly half of those costs through price adjustments and cost-sharing with factory partners.
Deckers’ shares have already dropped more than 55% year to date, leaving investors on edge about any signs of decelerating demand.
