Global week ahead: ‘Cockroaches’ crawling toward Europe?

Europe’s banks take center stage this week as earnings season gets underway, but with heavy losses across the sector on Friday, credit concerns appear to be making their way across the Atlantic at a particularly tricky time for the region’s lenders.

Last week, the biggest names in American finance battled it out to make the most alarming quote of the week. The contenders: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, Citi Group CEO Jane Fraser and Apollo boss Marc Rowan.

Dimon started the week with a stark warning about the private credit market, saying “when you see one cockroach, there’s probably more.”

Fraser was up next, warning of “pockets of valuation frothiness.” While Rowan was more explicit, suggesting that “there’s been a willingness to cut corners,” in a recent appearance with the Financial Times.

With the sirens sounding stateside, what does this mean for Europe, and how will the continents’ bankers narrate their concerns as earnings season kicks off in earnest next week?

European earnings season kicks off

Unicredit, Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group and Natwest will lead the financial names reporting in Europe and the U.K.

Head of Financials for Credit at Federated Hermes, Filippo Alloatti, told CNBC that he expects CEOs to “shift from macro to micro risk” as a focus in their earnings calls this week, amid concerns around the private credit markets. Meanwhile, Johann Scholtz from Morningstar told CNBC that while he does not see a material deterioration of credit quality appearing in third-quarter results, “it will be interesting how candid management teams will be when discussing the future evolution of credit quality.”

Scholtz highlighted concerns about corporate and small-to-medium sized company loan books, saying “the market is underestimating the impact that (trade) tariffs could have on certain pockets of European banks’ lending books.”

On Friday, bank stocks across Europe sold off sharply as credit concerns drove big declines for the likes of Deutsche Bank, Société Générale, UBS and its peers across the sector.

Margin of error

CNBC’s Silvia Amaro will speak to Unicredit CEO Andrea Orcel as the bank publishes its latest set of earnings, with S&P Global predicting a subdued third quarter amid narrowing net interest margins and higher funding costs.

The Italian lender is continuing it’s M&A ambitions, increasing its stake in Greece’s Alpha Bank to 26%, with Orcel saying “we are grateful to the Greek government, the central bank and other Greek institutions for welcoming us and encouraging our investment.” The reception to Unicredit’s expansion plans in Germany remains cooler.

Car trouble

British lender Lloyds Bank will also report next week, having just announced a new £1.95 billion hit to its balance sheet following a regulatory ruling over the mis-selling of car finance loans. The Financial Conduct Authority estimates the scandal will cost U.K. lenders up to £11 billion. IG predicts this charge will offset what would have been a strong quarter for the bank, as unlike some of it European rivals, net interest income continues to rise.

Monday: China GDP data

Tuesday: L’Oreal, Coca Cola, Netflix earnings

Wednesday: U.K. inflation data, Unicredit, Barclays, Tesla earnings

Thursday: Unilever, Lloyds Banking Group, SAP, Intel earnings

Friday: France, Germany, U.K. PMI data, Natwest, Procter & Gamble earnings