Russia accused of hybrid warfare against Europe. What does that mean?

Europe has to confront the reality of the “hybrid warfare” being waged against it, according to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, telling EU lawmakers that a series of incidents was “not random harassment” but part of a concerted campaign to unsettle and weaken the bloc.

Recent drone and airspace incursions, cyberattacks and election interference were just a few incidents that von der Leyen cited as instances of hybrid warfare against Europe.

“In just the past two weeks, MiG fighters have violated Estonia’s airspace, and drones have flown over critical sites in Belgium, Poland, Romania, Denmark and Germany. Flights have been grounded, jets scrambled, and countermeasures deployed to ensure the safety of our citizens,” von der Leyen said Wednesday during a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.

“Make no mistake. This is part of a worrying pattern of growing threats. Across our Union, undersea cables have been cut, airports and logistics hubs paralysed by cyberattacks, and elections targeted by malign influence campaigns,” von der Leyen said, adding emphatically: “This is hybrid warfare, and we have to take it very seriously.”

While she did not blame all those incidents directly on Moscow, von der Leyen said it was evident that “Russia wants to sow division.”

Moscow has long been accused of being behind a multitude of “hybrid” attacks against its European neighbors but has repeatedly denied those accusations. CNBC contacted the Kremlin for a response to von der Leyen’s latest remarks and is awaiting a response.

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So what is a hybrid war, or warfare? Put simply, it’s a way to wage a type of warfare without appearing to be doing so.

There is no set definition for hybrid warfare but defense, military and security experts agree that, fundamentally, it blends conventional military methods with more subversive or irregular tactics designed to disrupt, distract and undermine adversaries.

European countries on the periphery of the EU, or those on the frontier with Russia, like the Baltic states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, or those in Eastern Europe such as Romania and Poland, have been increasingly exposed to hybrid warfare attacks.

These incidents have ranged from energy and telecommunications infrastructure, such as undersea cables, being sabotaged, to Russian jets or submarines venturing into NATO airspace or waters for short periods of time.

Russia has denied being behind many of these incidents, although it tends not to comment on its jets entering NATO airspace or drone incidents that led to Danish airports being closed and flights disrupted. A number of European officials accused Russia of being behind the disruption but the authorities said they had not yet found evidence of Russia’s involvement.

That’s one of the hallmarks of hybrid warfare, the EU’s von der Leyen said, with such incidents “calculated to linger in the twilight of deniability.”

Russia’s campaign of hybrid activities in Europe has expanded significantly since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began over three years ago, according to a report published earlier this year from geopolitical and security intelligence service, Dragonfly.

It documented 219 incidents of suspected Russian hybrid warfare in Europe since 2014, including sabotage, assassinations and electromagnetic attacks, such as GPS jamming. Of these incidents, 86% have taken place since early 2022 and almost half (46%) occurred in 2024 alone.

The Baltic states, Finland, Germany, Norway, Poland and the U.K. will probably remain the primary targets, the report noted, due to their strong support for Ukraine.

European officials are under no illusion that the time to act to bolster regional security and defenses against malign activities is now.

NATO members earlier this year pledged to increase defense spending to 5% of grpss domestic product and Europe has vowed to mobilize its defense sector to meet the “permanent threat to European security” that’s posed by Russia, as Luxembourg Prime Minister Luc Frieden told CNBC last week.

Member states discussed last week the creation of “flagship” defense projects such as the Eastern Flank Watch initiative, which proposes the creation of a “drone wall” network that would protect against airspace violations by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). There is some ambivalence over the drone wall, however, with Germany’s defense minister appearing to pour cold water on the idea.

Luxembourg’s Frieden said the EU did not want a conflict with Russia, but needed to protect itself.

“Hybrid attacks are obviously something that can happen anywhere — the cables in the Baltic Sea, the attacks on our IT systems, the drones that can fly over some of our countries, that shows that there is a certain kind of provocation that we have to take seriously,” Frieden said, adding: “I don’t want us to be at war with Russia … but we need to take threats seriously” he told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro.

“We want to tell Russia, don’t try, stop it, go back … [and that it has] no chance in conquering the Europe.”