Déjà vu in France as political chaos returns, but there is a difference

As news of French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s resignation broke on Monday morning, journalists scrambled to get in touch with government spokespeople to clarify which ministers were actually in charge: the ones Lecornu had nominated only the night before, or the ones that were previously in office before the reshuffle?

That’s how unprecedented and unique the French political situation is right now (and by the way the answer is: the ones nominated Sunday night will be caretaking until a new PM and government are picked).

Thirteen hours after announcing his new government’s cabinet, and just 27 days in the job, Lecornu handed over his resignation to French President Emmanuel Macron.

The political fragmentation after the July 2024 snap election caused this instability, with opposing political blocs emerging in the two rounds of voting that fell far from an absolute majority.

That led Macron to install minority governments that relied upon, and ultimately failed, due to precarious pacts and dealmaking.

On the one hand, there is an air of déjà vu in France now: the next PM will be Macron’s sixth in less than two years.

On the other hand, the current crisis is different: the Lecornu government was not toppled by the opposition, like those of predecessors Michel Barnier or Francois Bayrou — it was its own allies that caused its downfall.

In his address Monday morning to explain his decision to resign, Lecornu blamed political parties’ intransigence for the impasse France finds itself in.

“I was ready to compromise, but each political party wanted the other political party to adopt its entire program,” he said, adding that “the composition of the government woke up some partisan appetites that are not unrelated to the future presidential election.”

This was a barely hidden criticism of Bruno Retailleau, the freshly reappointed interior minister and leader of the center-right group, Les Republicains (LR). 

Shortly after the nominations Sunday night, Retailleau criticized the composition of a government “that does not reflect the promised break” by Lecornu, and said his party’s executive would meet the next day to decide whether it would continued to support the government.

The LR and its 49 lawmakers had been part of the “socle commun” (common base) working with Macron’s centrist alliance, Ensemble, since the snap election, and even before that on some key reforms.  Many held key roles, including Bruno Le Maire, the former economy and finance minister whose return to government as new defense minister ruffled feathers within the LR party. 

It’s quite ironic that a party that likes to present itself as the party of responsibility, particularly when it comes to public finances, triggered the latest French political crisis. But LR’s distancing from the government left Lecornu with no room for maneuver. 

In a way, the breakup of the “socle commun” is not surprising. As we get closer to the 2027 presidential election, parties and key political figures think about their future. Macron cannot run again after winning the presidency twice. With his unpopularity, even allies are starting to distance themselves. The latest move by LR could be another step in a wider political re-alignment ahead of the election.

So now all eyes turn to the Elysee, again.

In a surprise twist on Monday evening, Macron gave Lecornu another 48 hours for “final discussions” with rival parties to try to break the impasse.

Lecornu wrote on social media platform X that he will report to the president on Wednesday evening on any potential breakthrough “so that he can draw all the necessary conclusions.”

It’s hard to see what Lecornu can achieve in 48 hours, beyond what he’s done since his nomination almost a month ago.

So will the next step be another snap election?

The far-right right led by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen are calling for this. That’s not surprising, since polls show them in the lead with 30 to 35% of the vote.

That was also the case last year but eventually a coalition of the left, and a so-called “cordon sanitaire” vote, came top. That coalition between the far-left, communists, greens and socialists has since imploded. 

A dissolution of the National Assembly would indeed be the logical democratic choice in the current situation, but there is no guarantee that it would deliver any clearer majority. 

Lecornu concluded his resignation statement Monday morning saying, “one must always prefer one’s country to one’s party.”

Last year’s snap election result was a test: would French lawmakers learn to work in broad coalitions like so many of their European counterparts? Fast forward 15 months, the answer is a resounding ‘no.’